Ticari Açıklık, Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Beşeri Sermayenin Toplam Faktör Verimliliğinin Belirleyicileri Olarak Rolü: Türkiye’den Kanıtlar
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37241/jatss.2026.162Anahtar Kelimeler:
toplam faktör verimliliği- ticari açıklık- Türkiye- doğrudan yabancı yatırımlarÖzet
Giriş: Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de toplam faktör verimliliğinin belirleyicilerini ticari açıklık, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, beşeri sermaye ve araştırma-geliştirme değişkenleri çerçevesinde incelemektedir. Toplam faktör verimliliği, uzun dönemli ekonomik performansın temel göstergelerinden biri olarak, ekonominin kaynakları ne ölçüde etkin kullandığını, teknolojik kapasitesini ve üretim sürecindeki verimlilik kazanımlarını yansıtmaktadır.
Yöntem: Çalışmada Türkiye’ye ait yıllık zaman serisi verileri kullanılmıştır. Toplam faktör verimliliği Penn World Table veri tabanından, ticari açıklık ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar Dünya Bankası’ndan, beşeri sermaye TÜİK ve YÖK verilerinden, Ar-Ge değişkeni ise TÜİK’ten elde edilmiştir. Ampirik analizde Fourier ADF birim kök testi, RALS Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme testi, DOLS tahmincisi ile Toda–Yamamoto ve Fourier Toda–Yamamoto nedensellik testleri uygulanmıştır.
Sonuçlar ya da Bulgular: Analiz sonuçları, değişkenlerin uzun dönemde birlikte hareket ettiğini ortaya koymaktadır. DOLS sonuçları, ticari açıklık, beşeri sermaye ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımların toplam faktör verimliliğini pozitif etkilediğini; Ar-Ge değişkeninin ise pozitif ancak istatistiksel olarak anlamsız bir katsayıya sahip olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Nedensellik analizi, ticari açıklıktan toplam faktör verimliliğine doğru nedensellik ilişkisi bulunduğunu göstermektedir.
Tartışma ya da Yapılan Çıkarımlar: Sonuçlar, Türkiye’nin verimlilik performansının dışa açıklık, yabancı yatırım ve beşeri sermaye birikimiyle yakından ilişkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, Ar-Ge faaliyetlerinin verimlilik kazanımlarına dönüşebilmesi için beşeri sermaye niteliğinin, üniversite-sanayi iş birliğinin ve teknoloji odaklı politika tasarımının güçlendirilmesi gerekmektedir.
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