KEİ Ülkelerinde Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ile Yolsuzluk İlişkisinin Xiao vd. (2023) Granger Nedensellik Testi ile Analizi
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37241/jatss.2026.153Anahtar Kelimeler:
doğrudan yabancı yatırım- yolsuzluğun kontrolü- Granger nedensellik- Karadeniz Ekonomik İşbirliği ÖrgütüÖzet
Giriş: Bu çalışma, Karadeniz Ekonomik İşbirliği Örgütü (KEİ) üyesi ülkelerde doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY) ile yolsuzluğun kontrolü arasındaki ilişkiyi 2002-2023 dönemi için incelemektedir.
Yöntem: Analizde yolsuzluğun kontrolü endeksi bağımlı değişken olarak ele alınmış, DYY temel açıklayıcı değişken olarak modele dâhil edilmiştir. Ekonomik büyüme ve ticari açıklık değişkenleri kontrol değişkenleri olarak kullanılmıştır. Ülkeler arası yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve heterojenliği dikkate alan Xiao vd. (2023) Panel Granger Nedensellik Testi uygulanmıştır. Ayrıca Westerlund (2007) panel eşbütünleşme testi ile sağlamlık analizi yapılmıştır.
Sonuçlar ya da Bulgular: Temel analiz, DYY ve yolsuzluğun kontrolü arasında önemli çift yönlü tahmin ilişkileri belirleyerek, her bir değişkenin diğerindeki değişiklikleri tahmin edebileceğini göstermektedir. Bulgular ayrıca ekonomik büyüme ve yolsuzluğun kontrolü arasında güçlü bir ilişki olduğunu, buna karşılık ticaret açıklığının yolsuzluğun kontrolü üzerindeki etkisinin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmadığını göstermektedir. Çok değişkenli eşbütünleşme sonuçları, incelenen değişkenler arasında uzun vadeli bir dengeye dair yalnızca sınırlı kanıt sunmaktadır.
Tartışma ya da Yapılan Çıkarımlar: Çalışma, KEİ ülkelerine özgü bu ilişkiyi yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve heterojenliği dikkate alan bir panel nedensellik yöntemiyle incelemektedir. Bulgular, yolsuzluğun kontrolündeki iyileşmelerin DYY üzerindeki etkisinin ters yöne kıyasla daha sağlam olduğunu göstermekte; bu da kurumsal reformların bölgedeki yatırım ve kalkınma stratejilerinin önemli unsurlarından biri olduğunu düşündürmektedir.
İndirmeler
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